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Report: Quintessential N.E. at risk: Warns region to stem global warming's pace
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Imagine Vermont without maple syrup, Maine with fewer lobsters, and New Hampshire without the brilliant red foliage that enlivens fall mornings. Unthinkable? A new study by some of the region's top climate scientists projects that many of the things that define New England -- from knee-high snow drifts to lobster rolls -- could disappear if global warming continues at its current pace.
"The character of this region is at stake," said Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists, a Cambridge-based environmental group that produced the report in collaboration with dozens of climate specialists, other scientists, and economists. "The emissions choices that we make today will lead to starkly different futures in our lifetime and certainly the lifetime of our children."
Click here to read this article in the Boston Globe
Below are some extracts from the Union of Concerned Scientists Report (that is the subject of the above Boston Globe article), entitled, "Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast":
Pages 44-45:
Even as human pressures mount, wind and waves have been steadily reshaping Cape Cod. The sea reclaimed three square miles of the shoreline between 1951 and 1990, and the peninsula has continued to lose an estimated 33 acres of land each year since then—about three-quarters of it to inundation by rising seas and the rest to active erosion by surf and storm waves... According to U.S. Geological Survey projections Cape Cod, Nantucket Island, and Martha’s Vineyard are among the areas in the Northeast most at risk from accelerated sea-level rise. During storms, their beaches may be subject to much greater erosion, shorelines will also be more susceptible to breaching by storm waves. The prospect of greater storm damage combined with the escalating value of the properties at risk recently prompted major insurers to cancel thousands of homeowners’ policies on Cape Cod. Sea-level rise also creates the potential for saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands and Cape Cod’s freshwater aquifer—especially when compounded by increased groundwater pumping to provide drinking water for a growing population. Continued ocean warming may cause the cod that were once such an important part of the local economy to disappear from the waters off the south coast of Cape Cod during this century. These waters are also likely to lose their lobster fishery by midcentury. Changes in air temperatures and the timing of seasons are already altering Cape Cod in other ways. Researchers analyzing 70 years’ worth of data from the Cape Cod Christmas Bird Count have found changes in the composition of the winter bird community, as species with southern affinities such as the green heron, snowy egret, great egret, and red-shouldered hawk have become more common and birds with northern affinities such as the evening grosbeak, cedar waxwing, and great cormorant have become less common. NECIA projections reflect these ongoing changes and suggest that far greater reductions can be expected in the abundance of a number of additional favorite bird species, particularly undert he higher- emissions scenario. Warming temperatures also threaten Cape Cod’s traditional cranberry crop. Though a small part of the state’s overall cranberry industry today, Cape Cod is the original home of cranberry production. According to NECIA projections, by mid-century, cranberry production will be at risk in southeastern Massachusetts, especially under the higher-emissions scenario.
P. 109:
Wind energy represents one of the most attractive near-term prospects among renewable resources for making substantial, relatively low-cost contributions to electricity generation in the Northeast. Onshore wind resources have the technical potential to meet almost half of the region’s annual energy needs, while offshore wind resources in New England and the Mid-Atlantic are projected to far exceed the Northeast’s current summer generating capacity. The large offshore wind project currently proposed for the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts would provide up to 440 megawatts of power and meet three-quarters of that area’s electricity needs. [EMPAHSIS ADDED]
P. 125:
Climate change represents an enormous challenge, but the solutions are within reach if we act swiftly. Because global warming is largely caused by humans, people also have the power to change its course. Concerted actions to reduce heat-trapping emissions—on the order of 80 percent below 2000 levels by mid-century and just over 3 percent per year over the next few decades—will keep temperatures and the associated impacts from rising to the level of the lower-emissions scenario used in this study.
As both a global leader in technology, finance, and innovation and a major source of heat-trapping emissions, the Northeast is well positioned to help drive further national and international climate progress.
The costs of delay are high. Given the centurylong lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, the longer we delay, the larger and more aggressive and costly our emissions reductions will need to be in order to limit the extent and severity of climate change. If, for example, U.S. emissions continue on a “business as usual” path through 2020, we would have to reduce our nation’s emissions about 9 percent per year from 2020 to 2050 to avoid the impacts described in this report. What is required is an energy revolution of the kind that occurred a century ago as the nation shifted from gaslights
and buggies to electricity and cars. In 1905 only 3 percent of U.S. homes had electricity, virtually none had cars, and few could envision how these innovations would transform America and its economy half a century later. Similarly, slightly less than 3 percent of current U.S. electricity demand is met by non-hydroelectric renewable energy, but the fact that we accomplished a dramatic transformation of our energy economy only a century ago suggests that, with foresight and perseverance, we can do it again.
The actions highlighted here for meeting the climate challenge are consistent with and complementary to other widely shared goals such as enhancing
our energy and economic security, creating jobs, producing cleaner air, and building a more sustainable economy (the Northeast has very little fossil fuel
resources of its own). The Northeast’s states and their municipal governments have a rich array of proven strategies and policies at their disposal to meet the climate challenge in partnership with businesses, institutions, and an increasingly supportive public. The time to act is now.
Click here to download this report.
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