The Cape Codder, March 7, 2003

COPENHAGEN, Denmark - As visitors descend by plane into Denmark's eclectic capital, their first sight isn't of the countless castles, the jazz clubs and neon signs, or the world famous Longstreade pedestrian walkway. It's 20 wind turbines in the middle of Copenhagen Harbor.

Bathed in the sun's soft glow, the turbines look like little pinwheels of white from high in the air. Touring the countryside with endless fields broken by grazing cows and pig farms, one sees wind turbines standing tall, singly or in clusters, spinning slowly and quietly. Rising high above the landscape, they catch the uninitiated eye as museum sculptures that escaped to a more bucolic life.

The scene in Denmark is telling, as Cape Codders emotionally debate the pros and cons of what could be the United States' first offshore wind farm in Nantucket Sound. This tiny country across the Atlantic has built more than 6,000 wind turbines on land and sea since the 1970s. And its waters are zoned to accommodate thousands more.

Many Danes have grown up with wind power, watching small windmills grow into large energy generators. They've seen successive administrations hold up wind power as the path to a cleaner, safer environment and to energy independence. They've cheered as governments looked to the sea as the next wind frontier, and they've nodded affirmatively at the thought of at least 2,500 turbines off their shores.

If U.S. administrations have mentioned wind, it's been in broad terms; its policies and goals insignificant compared to the world's leader in wind power, Denmark. While the Bush administration repudiates the Kyoto agreement, Denmark consents to monetary sacrifices dealt by the accord in an effort to reduce greenhouse gases and enhance renewable energy.

While U.S. residents approach wind power with uncertainty, counterparts in Denmark personally invest in the technology. Nearly 60,000 Danes have some financial stake in wind turbines.

While a policy vacuum exists in the United States over siting of wind farms, the Danish government - with encouragement from voters - long ago mapped the ocean, identifying all its uses before deciding where to locate turbines so they wouldn't mar the shoreline's beauty except in industrial areas.

All this has meant spectacular growth for wind power in Denmark. An original goal to produce 1,500 megawatts of electricity from wind by 2005 has been far surpassed, with nearly 3,000 megawatts expected this year. About 18 percent of the country's electric needs are met by winds blowing across the open landscape and nearby waters.

A changing wind

But after nearly two decades of unfettered growth, the winds are shifting in Denmark.

Some academics now argue that there are other less costly ways to achieve Kyoto goals; and nuclear energy proponents are pushing that "clean" energy.

Many Danes, such as the group Neighbors to Turbines, protest that wind development, especially on land, has grown too fast, making developers rich at the expense of electric rate payers who must absorb the cost of government subsidies and price guarantees.

Listening carefully, a conservative government that took office last year has decided to cut back on these historic subsidies and guarantees. The next three offshore wind farms will compete on the open market alongside other energy sources. Making this more feasible, the costs of wind turbines have dropped almost 80 percent from 15 years ago.

These changing winds hold lessons for Cape Codders as they struggle over whether to build a wind farm that will have 50 more turbines than any Danish initiative.

In some ways, Denmark has moved toward the United States' view that private enterprise should lead the charge toward wind development. But while Cape Wind Associates is ready to construct a Nantucket Sound wind farm with private capital, it's uncertain whether risk-oriented private developers will do the same in Denmark.

Jens Nybo Jensen, of the Danish utility Elsam, likens the years ahead to raising a child. After weaning, educating and nurturing her, it's time for her to make her own way in the world.

"Wind is becoming an adult and needs to stand up to reality," he said.

Currently, there are four off-shore wind farms in Denmark, and another one that will be completed this spring. They range in size from 10 to 80 turbines and represent approximately 370 megawatts of electricity. Each has a personality and a purpose all its own, sited after considerable planning and funding by the Danish government. Each necessitated environmental studies, and as many as 17 permitting departments commented before the structures were built.

The wind farms all operate under the Danish Energy Agency, which not only sets policy and institutes goals, but also implements the Offshore Installations Act, the Pipelines Act and the Act on the Continental Shelf.

Although the wind farms were built by utilities, they were "ordered" by the government. Although neighboring Sweden had the first off-shore turbine, Denmark boasts the first wind farm, Vindeby, with 11 turbines built in 1990.

Until Ireland completes its 200-turbine Arklow facility, Denmark will still have the largest offshore wind project in the world. Horns Rev is located on the former Devil's Reef, a spot that has claimed many ships, much like the Cape's Outer Banks.

Horns Rev in the North Sea is only about 10 miles from a tourist enclave. Its turbines are visible from wide, sandy beaches reminiscent of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Other wind projects were built even closer to shore, but in heavy industrial areas. One, a couple of miles from a bird sanctuary, is being constructed specifically to gauge impacts on avian species.

Another Horns Rev-size project at Nysted is under construction, and the three yet-to-be-built offshore wind farms, each also at least 80 turbines, could be expanded five-fold.

However, it's unclear, even to people in the industry, if those projects will be built on schedule this year, or take more time as policies shift.

Strong roots

Despite these changing winds, polls indicate that three out of every four Danes strongly support wind energy, and only 5 percent strongly disagree with this path.

The country's commitment is firmly rooted in history, culture and ethos.

Until the Arab oil embargo of 1973, 90 percent of Denmark's energy needs were provided by OPEC. But, while Danes spent as many hours in gasoline lines as did Americans, it was Denmark that moved aggressively to adopt wind energy 25 years ago.

"At that time we realized this was a problem," Elsam's Jensen says. "Wind technology in Denmark is a child of that oil crisis."

While the oil embargo was a wake-up call, other emerging threats spurred the pro-wind movement. The Danish government realized it had to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which then were among the worst in the world.

At the same time, Denmark was deeply affected by the Three-Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania. With public protests accelerating, the government banned nuclear energy by 1985. Today, there are no nuclear plants in a country half the size of Maine.

By 1997, the Danish government also banned new coal-fired power, and is expected to completely phase out coal as a fuel by 2030, with wind energy designed to replace it entirely. Denmark also expanded natural gas operations in the North Sea, and built a number of combined heat and power plants to produce electricity.

Now, says Jensen, Denmark rarely depends on other countries for its energy needs. "We are almost self-sufficient, and have been so for a few years."

Despite Denmark's long love affair with windmills, growth of wind energy could not have occurred without an ambitious set of government policies - subsidies and guaranteed prices - to address energy company concerns and to spur private development.

"A fixed price was necessary to build up a market," says Anne Grethe Holmsgaard, a Green Party member of Folketinget, the Danish Parliament.

When wind power was first talked about, she says, utility officials fought the idea of small turbines connecting to the grid, arguing this would be too difficult and expensive.

It turned out, however, that the grid could easily accommodate small, even individual, wind turbines being erected by groups of farmers or neighbors. By 1996, there were 4,000 turbines scattered across the Danish landscape, with nearly half in the western part of the country, Jutland.

For all this to happen, however, the Danish government required utilities to purchase the wind energy and for consumers to buy the power, which is called "priority."

The results have been nothing less than stunning, says Jorgen Lemming, of the Danish Energy Agency. Carbon dioxide emissions today are below levels of 1990.

But with this success and the rapid reduction in the cost of turbines, the new Danish government is not willing to let consumers foot so much of the bill.

Lemming, wearing a red sweater and drinking kaffee (coffee) that makes our blends taste like herbal tea, explained the transition.

In the past, those who owned wind turbines on land may have received 0.60 oer (which is like our penny) for a kilowatt hour. But in recent years technology has improved so much that a kilowatt hour costs only 0.35 oer to produce. So the government has cut the subsidy, Lemming says, with some allowance for previous investment costs made by individuals and utilities.

Meanwhile, consumers still must purchase a certain amount of green power and invest in "green certificates," a way to tax carbon dioxide production on the one hand and encourage renewable energy on the other. There also is a fixed environmental premium of 3.5 cents per kilowatt hour above the market price.

The government certainly isn't walking away from wind, says Soeren Krohn, of the Danish Wind Turbine Association. "This is the wind capital of the world."

His industry is learning to adjust to the changes, he explains. "If we railed against the changes, we'd be spoiled kids."

From land to offshore

One of those adjustments is the growing focus toward the sea and away from land. Not only is Denmark worried about turbine sprawl across the countryside, but it recognizes the greater productivity of off-shore turbines, which are at least 50 percent more powerful and efficient.

As early as the 1970s, the Danish Energy Agency, at the time under the Ministry of the Environment and Energy, started to map offshore wind sites; but it wasn't until the early 1990s that small demonstration projects were built. Those sites were identified by the National Agency for Physical Planning.

For the first off-shore wind farm, Vindeby, the ministry appointed a wind turbine committee, wanting to ensure that every interest - from fishing to shipping - would be heard and protected. It also wanted to ensure that natural sites could be restored if and when the wind farms were shut down.

When Vindeby was built, only 1.5 kilometers from the coast, there were no protests, says Lemming.

While a second off-shore wind farm, Tuno Knob, was being constructed six kilometers from the coast, 2,000 people did sign protests, recalls Lemming. But complaints died down after it was opened.

The biggest anxiety during Tuno Knob's construction, says Krohn, was over its visibility from shore. Today, however, he can sit with other beachgoers and the turbines only four miles away are virtually out of sight and mind, he notes.

"One has to understand," he says, leaning forward on his elbows, "that the human eye takes in a great deal of the horizon. The experience of seeing a wind farm after it's built is far different from a focused view in a picture."

Still, after the first two off-shore farms were constructed, the Danish government decided future projects must be at least seven to 10 kilometers from the coastline. (Although studies determined that wind farms wouldn't be totally invisible until they were 20-25 kilometers off the coast.)

During this time, two government-sponsored reports were published. Their verdicts on offshore wind farms were unequivocal: There would be a very positive, net environmental effect from developing large scale offshore wind farms.

The Danish Action Plans for Offshore Wind, completed in 1987 and 1996, suggested a major initiative by 2003; but there was so much support in the wake of their publications that the construction era began almost immediately.

Lemming was a member of the panel that drew up an action plan. There was a buzz in the air, he recalls. The government, which clearly controlled offshore rights, hired consultants to visualize how the farms would look from various angles of the shoreline.

They concluded that offshore farms should be concentrated only in a few areas. Several sites were chosen within three kilometers of shore, but each was in an industrial area.

One, Roenland, comprised of eight turbines, is near a chemical plant. Another, 10-turbine Samosae, was near a natural reserve, but the island is trying to be self-sufficient using entirely renewable energy.

With excitement in his voice, Lemming explains that island residents are trying to use heat generated from ferries to power cars.  A third off-shore wind farm, Middelgrunden, was selected right in Copenhagen's harbor. Rebecca Barthelmie, of Risoe National Laboratory, a think tank that collected wind measurements for the site, says Middelgrunden is the least windy place in the country.

But it has a far more strategic role. "It is also about having a showcase for Danish industry," she says.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the two plans also identified four other sites to be developed in the future. They would initially produce 750 megawatts of electricity, but could increase in size to supply upward of 8,000 megawatts.

Krohn says that a key to the siting process was the federal government's role. By picking the locations, it took pressure off municipal officials who often felt forced to say, "Not here."

That leads to BANANA - Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody, says Krohn.

The only two utilities in Denmark were tapped to build the first two projects, Horns Rev, already producing power, and Nysted.

Three additional off-shore farms are in the planning stages - Laeso in the Kattegat Sea, Omo Stalgrunde in the Langeland Belt and Gedser Rev in the Baltic Sea. But their fates are somewhat up in the air in 2003 because of the new government policy that wind must pay its own way.

What will tomorrow bring?

H.C Soerensen, who helped build Middelgrunden, says he has a "very bad feeling" that the three planned wind farms won't be built anytime soon.

The issue isn't whether to free the wind industry from government supports, he and others argue, but how to do it and how fast to proceed.

Soerensen's pessimism is being fueled by recent events. Only last week, the Danish government announced it would meet its Kyoto quota to reduce greenhouse gases by paying Russia two million kroners (about $765,000) instead of investing twice that at home. (Russia is producing less carbon dioxide than it is allowed under the Kyoto quotas. This allows other countries like Denmark to pay Russia to stay below its ceiling, while they continue to produce higher levels themselves.)

That is "short-sighted," says Soerensen. That approach can work only until 2008, when countries like Russia are expected to be producing carbon dioxide at or above their ceilings. Then Denmark again will have to depend directly on renewable energy, says Soerensen.

"And in the meantime we have supported the Russian economy instead of the Danish," he adds.

The new right-of-center government has a different approach to many energy policies, compared with the previous Social Democratic-led government, which had been in power since 1990.

Apart from reducing taxes to support green energy, it espouses a goal of getting the "most environment for the money," says Soren Rasmussen, a member of Neighbors to Turbines, which believes the former government was too supportive of wind turbines.

"They don't want to just spend money on any good cause. If there is another cause with better benefit, someplace else, at the same price. ... [they'll take it]," he says.

Thus, the decision to eliminate carbon dioxide levels in Russia, a strategy that costs Denmark less but addresses overall global quotas.

While the new government insists it is not trying to dismantle the wind industry in its pursuit of a freer marketplace, at least one Danish wind company, World Wide Wind, announced last week that it was in financial trouble after the Russian decision.

And the company that built Horns Rev is constructing a large offshore wind project in England because it can't afford to build another one in its homeland.

"No one wants to bid that low [without subsidies] in the Danish waters where the wind is not very good," Soerensen says.

Holmsgaard, who was a member of a commission that called for reducing subsidies, firmly believes it was the right approach. "We want free and fair for the black and the green," she says.

Still, she admits to nervousness that the world's leading edge nation in wind power may be going too far, too fast in the other direction, just as other countries discover the economic and environmental potential of renewable energy.